Bad article about BP.
When I say bad, it's really bad: Green Tech Media Bad article.
It's poorly researched with outright mistakes on the BP plan. It's a good sample of the hurdles that BP will face selling the concept to people that won't go to the trouble of understanding the detail. The worrying thing there is that it's written in a popular "green" site.
The one point which I think is valid is that people will feel bad about being "stuck" to BP. Using the cell phone analogy, it will be difficult to convince people that they will be restricted to BP if they are used to the current "No roaming fee", "no network restriction" state of the current oil based car network. I don't think the current argument that "adapters" will exist is enough. So should BP be more engaged with competitors such as Coulomb Technologies to ensure cross network use is garanteed from the start?
F
It's poorly researched with outright mistakes on the BP plan. It's a good sample of the hurdles that BP will face selling the concept to people that won't go to the trouble of understanding the detail. The worrying thing there is that it's written in a popular "green" site.
The one point which I think is valid is that people will feel bad about being "stuck" to BP. Using the cell phone analogy, it will be difficult to convince people that they will be restricted to BP if they are used to the current "No roaming fee", "no network restriction" state of the current oil based car network. I don't think the current argument that "adapters" will exist is enough. So should BP be more engaged with competitors such as Coulomb Technologies to ensure cross network use is garanteed from the start?
F
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by DXR_13KE on -
1) what?
2) what?
3) comparing to what?
4) so we wait for something that will take less time to pay off?
5) the swap stations are always automatic and the battery is never yours. about the weight... normal forklifts can lift that much.
6) 1000 charges?
7) and wait how long for the car to charge?
i would love to ask him what are the sources for his information.
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Permalink Reply by Mike on
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Firstly, the author of that rank piece of trash they call an 'editorial' comes off as an unwashed ignoramus (and with statements like "Everyone is moving to the city. Just like China. The country has more cities with 10 million people than I have blackheads on my nose." he seems to be intent on proving it.)
Secondly, Shai has been recorded on tape suggesting that all auto manufacturers and all infrastructure companies adopt a 'standard' charging plug so that the aforementioned fear will never become realized.
Even IF they do not adopt a universal standard IEEE-certified vehicle charging port/post/cord/whatnot, it shouldn't be more than about $50-100 to have one constructed prior to their being made universally available at every automotive parts dealership around the world for much less cost.
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Permalink Reply by EVHappy on
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1. It Won't Plug Into the Wall:
I agree with this. If you can’t just plug it in anywhere there is a plug (millions of them) then the customer might get very frustrated sitting there with a dead battery, a free plug, an extension cord and no way to make it work. Very frustrated. Roll the car into the lake frustrated.
2. Automakers Will Make Cast-Offs for the Company
Shai wants this. The concept will be more accepted if more companies are on an open network. Besides, the first business in usually has the lasting market recognition. Yahoo, Google, Windows, Mac, e-Bay, etc.
3. It's Insanely Expensive:
They have done a complete financial analysis and determined that it’s not insanely expensive. Would the author please let us know what insanely expensive means? Is that like ludicrous speed from the movie Spaceballs? Many things would seem very expensive to many people. For example, a fiber optic telecommunications network or a satellite constellation but companies have built them and profited handsomely from taking such risks.
4. It Will Take Years to Pay Off:
So what? If they lay out the plan to their investors and the investors are willing to wait for the payoff then what’s the problem? How many business ventures pay off immediately? Very few. Building a business from scratch to huge volumes takes time. Business investors know this and their patients is rewarded by untold profits.
5. Battery Swaps Are Inane:
The author is not an engineer and cannot comprehend such a task (moving a 500 lb weight around). In fact, this will be no problem at all. It’s simply an engineering problem that many engineers around the world could (and would love to) solve. The battery storage problem is also no problem if you imagine what the expected traffic is going to be. It will probably be very low for many years. As the volumes increase the battery technology is very likely to improve as well (if history is our guide). The batteries will get lighter and faster charging and thus require less space per mile driven. Eventually, I expect the swap-out stations to become quick-charge stations with enough electrical storage capacity to allow for the huge power spikes the cars will require. It’s a simple matter of determining how many spikes are required over the 24 hours and what the demand curve looks like. They then match the needed electrical storage capacity and hook up the required substation that will charge over the entire 24 hours (except during peak demand). Although the power flows will be high, if you spread that out over 24 hours it will not be anything unusual.
6. Persistent Charging Kills Batteries:
The author uses the just about the worst numbers he can find to support his outlandish arguments. Who drives 300 miles a day, everyday? The market analysis done by many (including GM) has determined that 80% of people drive less than 40 miles a day. All of these real statistics were used in BP’s market analysis and the numbers worked out. If everyone drove like the author assumed, there would not be enough petroleum on the planet to satisfy such demand. The author also is not even taking into account the latest battery technology. GM has been testing their Volt battery pack and have determined that it will last the warrantee period of the vehicle. The author should let the engineers determine if the battery will last. It’s one of the very first things the engineer would need to solve.
7. There Are Easier Ways.
Unfortunately for the author, this is where his lack of any engineering knowledge really shines. He does not understand power and energy and what is required for an EV. He thinks people will be able to just plug their cars into a wall socket and will be able to charge a battery for 150 miles worth of driving in a very short time (equivalent to the time it takes for gas to be pumped in a car for the same distance). This is impossible. The required power flow is much higher than is possible with standard wall plugs. In fact, in 10 minutes a standard 120V, 20 amp plug can only deliver around 0.4 kWh of energy! That will drive an EV for about 2 miles! If you use a 220V plug you can just about double that or about 4 miles! Clearly the author has no idea what he is talking about and thus his conclusions should be taken with a grain of salt.
So, do you have more faith in Shai and his team of engineers and army of investors or the author that has absolutely no science, engineering or business knowledge?
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Permalink Reply by Vijayendra V S on -
I presume that one has to view the advantages that BP provides to its consumers. In the current EV cars market, recharging the batteries is the biggest hurdle, hence Shai is trying to get a solution for it.
He states that "similar to gas stations, BP electric stations will be available for every 100 miles." In addition to it, charging stations will be installed at each and every corner of the city. What else the consumer want?
This can also be viewed from the other's prespective. No one really knows how things would really work. How efficient is the charging stations? How affordable is the car batteries? Until then, people would shell their views about the new concepts that are going to evolve.
Colloboration, mergers will be destined to happen in the near future due to the competition crisis. For that matter it has been seen in every industry. One has to sit and watch the game!!
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Permalink Reply by Derek Gray on
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I have been reading through quite a few of the forum threads and see sceptics pulling apart Shai’s Business Model and pointing to other media sources of it will not work etc.
The common thread is that they only can see the negative side of BP’s model, yes there are technical/logistics issues but BP’s team must have done their research in all of these areas otherwise he would not have gotten the investment so far and sign up with some major players around the world.
When I first read about Shai and Better Place in a magazine called “Wired” I was blown away by his vision and commitment I just had to join his community and follow his progress.
I for one, do not look at the negatives, where there are potential issues like some people have pointed out all they can see is someone who has a vision and has the guts and determination to bring us an electric vehicle solution which will meet our demands.
Why are people worried about batteries being stolen??? Who is going to jack up the car, remove this heavy battery and walk off with it, the fire risks that I’ve read, all nonsense BP would have taking this all into consideration in their development.
So I say to all these sceptics, get off your horse and cart and start to drive a car. Open your eyes, stop looking for hurdles why it won’t work, start thinking about how it will work focus your efforts in supporting and promoting this concept.
I am totally behind BP’s vision and will not be put off by these small minded sceptics.
OK rant over and got it off my chest lol.
When it arrives….not if, in the UK I will want to change over to EV on BP’s grid, give me it now. My daily travel to work and back five days a week is 45 miles round trip a day. If trips are longer then a swap station is required, don’t care about quality of battery as these are controlled by the swap station and not owned by me, that’s BP’s problem.
Come on Shai, get the UK on your radar.
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Permalink Reply by Padraic McDonnell on -
Something that annoys me are people who can’t get their head around something different, and then try to argue their point whilst at the same time not separating the differences between an old and a new concept. We end up with someone who misconceives a problem because that person doesn’t understand the new concept, because that person cannot think beyond the old one. The classic misconception/example in this case is the charging issue, as pointed out by evhappy “He thinks people will be able to just plug their cars into a wall socket and will be able to charge a battery for 150 miles worth of driving in a very short time (equivalent to the time it takes for gas to be pumped in a car for the same distance)”. Notice what is underlined is the author’s failure to think beyond what we do today at a gas station.
The only way you’ll satisfy closed minds is with a model that is the same as the one we have right now, you have fuel stations, and you pump and store fuel in you vehicle. Because that’s all they know, and any other model simple doesn’t work because it’s not the same.
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Permalink Reply by Padraic McDonnell on
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I think this article was the extent of that person's research.
http://www.cnet.com.au/how-better-place-plans-to-revive-the-electri...
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